Chapter 1 · World Cup

Favourites Who Went Home Early

The World Cup is the worst place in sport to be a favourite: a short tournament, a small margin for error and the whole planet watching when it goes wrong.

Vintage laced leather match ball rendered in soft light on a plain backdrop — The leather of 1950 and the synthetic panels of 2022 have one thing in common: they bounce unpredictably.

Why the World Cup breeds shocks

Every World Cup favourite carries the same structural weakness. Over a league season, quality compounds; over three group games, it barely has time to show. A side can dominate possession, create ten chances and still lose to the one shot that deflects in. Add travel, unfamiliar climates, squads assembled for a few weeks and the weight of national expectation, and the conditions for an upset are built into the format.

The six case files below span seven decades, and the pattern is consistent. The favourite was rarely outplayed for ninety minutes. More often it dominated, wasted chances, and then met an opponent who had planned specifically for that scenario. The notable exception is 1954, when West Germany were simply better on the day that mattered.

Our underdog ratings weigh the gap before kick-off, not the drama afterwards. Uruguay in 1950 were a serious side, so the Maracanazo scores lower than its legend suggests. North Korea in 1966 were an unknown quantity even to their own group opponents, so they score near the top.

The case files

9/10USA 1–0 England, 1950

Score: 1–0 (Gaetjens 38')
Venue: Estádio Independência, Belo Horizonte
Date: 29 June 1950
Stage: Group stage

Why it was improbable. England were playing their first World Cup and were widely regarded as the strongest side in the game. The American squad was largely part-time; Joe Gaetjens, the Haitian-born scorer, had been working as a dishwasher in New York.

How it happened. Walter Bahr's shot from distance clipped Gaetjens' head and wrong-footed Bert Williams. England then hit the woodwork and found goalkeeper Frank Borghi in defiant form. The legend that British editors assumed the score was a typo for 10–1 is a fine story, unsupported by any surviving front page.

7/10Uruguay 2–1 Brazil, 1950

Score: 2–1 (Friaça; Schiaffino, Ghiggia)
Venue: Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Date: 16 July 1950
Stage: Final round decider

Why it was improbable. Brazil needed only a draw. They had beaten Sweden 7–1 and Spain 6–1 in the final round, and the official crowd exceeded 173,000.

How it happened. Friaça scored just after half-time. Juan Alberto Schiaffino equalised in the 66th minute and Alcides Ghiggia beat Moacir Barbosa at his near post in the 79th. Captain Obdulio Varela's calm became part of the legend; the silence of the stadium became part of Brazil's.

8/10West Germany 3–2 Hungary, 1954

Score: 3–2 (Morlock, Rahn 2; Puskás, Czibor)
Venue: Wankdorf Stadium, Bern
Date: 4 July 1954
Stage: Final

Why it was improbable. Hungary's Golden Team were Olympic champions, had won 6–3 at Wembley and arrived unbeaten in 31 matches. They had thrashed West Germany 8–3 in the group stage.

How it happened. Hungary led 2–0 within eight minutes. Max Morlock and Helmut Rahn levelled before 20 minutes had passed, and Rahn struck the winner six minutes from time on a rain-soaked pitch. Sepp Herberger had rested players in the group game; the rehearsal mattered less than the final.

9/10North Korea 1–0 Italy, 1966

Score: 1–0 (Pak Doo-ik 42')
Venue: Ayresome Park, Middlesbrough
Date: 19 July 1966
Stage: Group stage

Why it was improbable. Italy were two-time world champions. North Korea were debutants about whom almost nothing was known in Europe.

How it happened. Italy lost Giacomo Bulgarelli to injury early and, with no substitutes allowed, played on with ten. Pak Doo-ik scored just before half-time and the adopted Middlesbrough crowd did the rest. North Korea then led Portugal 3–0 in the quarter-final before Eusébio scored four in a 5–3 defeat.

8/10Cameroon 1–0 Argentina, 1990

Score: 1–0 (Omam-Biyik 67')
Venue: San Siro, Milan
Date: 8 June 1990
Stage: Opening match

Why it was improbable. Argentina were the holders, led by Diego Maradona. Cameroon had never won a World Cup finals match.

How it happened. François Omam-Biyik's header squirmed past Nery Pumpido. Cameroon finished with nine men after red cards for André Kana-Biyik and Benjamin Massing, and held on. They went on to become the first African side to reach a quarter-final, with 38-year-old Roger Milla dancing at the corner flag.

8/10Saudi Arabia 2–1 Argentina, 2022

Score: 2–1 (Al-Shehri, Al-Dawsari; Messi pen.)
Venue: Lusail Stadium, Lusail
Date: 22 November 2022
Stage: Group stage

Why it was improbable. Argentina were Copa América holders, unbeaten in 36 matches and ranked third in the world. Saudi Arabia were ranked 51st.

How it happened. Lionel Messi scored a tenth-minute penalty, but Hervé Renard's high defensive line caught Argentina offside repeatedly, with three first-half goals ruled out. Saleh Al-Shehri and Salem Al-Dawsari scored within five minutes of the restart. Argentina went on to win the tournament, which is the only consolation that matters.

Favourite against underdog

Pre-match credentials for each World Cup case file
Match	The favourite	The underdog	Rating
USA 1–0 England, 1950	England: rated among the world's best	USA: largely part-time squad	9/10
Uruguay 2–1 Brazil, 1950	Brazil: hosts, needed only a draw	Uruguay: strong but outscored in the round	7/10
West Germany 3–2 Hungary, 1954	Hungary: 31 unbeaten, Olympic champions	West Germany: beaten 8–3 in the group	8/10
North Korea 1–0 Italy, 1966	Italy: two-time world champions	North Korea: debutants	9/10
Cameroon 1–0 Argentina, 1990	Argentina: holders, Maradona	Cameroon: no previous finals win	8/10
Saudi Arabia 2–1 Argentina, 2022	Argentina: 36 unbeaten, ranked 3rd	Saudi Arabia: ranked 51st	8/10

What the file tells us

Three lessons recur. First, the favourite usually creates more, and the gap in chances rarely matches the gap in reputation; it matches the gap in finishing on one day. Second, red cards and injuries change the arithmetic far more in a one-off match than across a season. Third, the underdog nearly always had a plan for the favourite's strengths, whether that was Renard's offside line or Herberger's patience.

None of this makes favourites foolish. It makes the World Cup a tournament where the best team often wins, and where "often" is doing a great deal of work.

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