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Chapter 4 · Continental

Europe's Unexpected Winners

Continental finals are supposed to be where the elite meet. Every so often, one of the finalists turns up without an invitation to the elite, and leaves with the trophy anyway.

Big handles, bigger favourites: continental silverware has a habit of slipping through them.

Why continental finals turn

A continental competition mixes the two formats that produce upsets: a tournament or knockout bracket, finished by a single final. The favourite must be good enough to reach the last match and then unlucky or careless enough to lose it. That happens more than reputations suggest, because a final is the most cautious match of a season. Caution narrows the gap between sides, and narrow gaps are where outsiders live.

This chapter covers both national-team championships and club competition. Denmark and Greece won the European Championship from positions no bookmaker took seriously. Steaua Bucharest and Porto won the continent's premier club trophy against sides with far larger budgets or reputations. The European focus is deliberate, but the pattern is global: Zambia's 2012 Africa Cup of Nations win in Libreville and Once Caldas' 2004 Copa Libertadores triumph over Boca Juniors belong in any wider discussion.

The case files

6/10Celtic 2–1 Inter, 1967
Score
2–1 (Gemmell, Chalmers; Mazzola pen.)
Venue
Estádio Nacional, Lisbon
Date
25 May 1967
Stage
European Cup final

Why it was improbable. Helenio Herrera's Inter had won the European Cup in 1964 and 1965 and perfected defensive catenaccio. No British club had won the trophy.

How it happened. Inter led through an early Sandro Mazzola penalty and retreated. Jock Stein's side attacked relentlessly; Tommy Gemmell equalised and Stevie Chalmers deflected in the winner late on. The squad, famously drawn from around Glasgow, became the Lisbon Lions.

7/10Czechoslovakia 2–2 West Germany, 1976
Score
2–2 a.e.t., 5–3 on penalties
Venue
Red Star Stadium, Belgrade
Date
20 June 1976
Stage
European Championship final

Why it was improbable. West Germany were reigning world and European champions.

How it happened. Czechoslovakia led 2–0, and Bernd Hölzenbein's late header forced extra time. In the first European Championship final settled on penalties, Uli Hoeneß missed and Antonín Panenka chipped the decisive kick down the middle, inventing a technique that still bears his name.

7/10Steaua Bucharest 0–0 Barcelona, 1986
Score
0–0 a.e.t., 2–0 on penalties
Venue
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville
Date
7 May 1986
Stage
European Cup final

Why it was improbable. Terry Venables' Barcelona were playing in Spain before an overwhelmingly Catalan crowd. No Eastern Bloc club had won the European Cup.

How it happened. After 120 goalless minutes, goalkeeper Helmuth Duckadam saved all four Barcelona penalties. Steaua scored two of theirs, which turned out to be plenty.

9/10Denmark 2–0 Germany, 1992
Score
2–0 (Jensen, Vilfort)
Venue
Ullevi, Gothenburg
Date
26 June 1992
Stage
European Championship final

Why it was improbable. Denmark had failed to qualify and were admitted around ten days before the tournament when Yugoslavia was excluded under UN sanctions. Germany were world champions.

How it happened. Richard Møller Nielsen's side beat France, then the Netherlands on penalties in the semi-final. In the final, John Jensen and Kim Vilfort scored while Peter Schmeichel kept Germany out. The tale that the squad was recalled from the beach is exaggerated; the result is not.

6/10Porto 3–0 Monaco, 2004
Score
3–0 (Carlos Alberto, Deco, Alenichev)
Venue
Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen
Date
26 May 2004
Stage
UEFA Champions League final

Why it was improbable. Neither finalist had been among the pre-tournament favourites. Porto knocked out Manchester United in the last 16.

How it happened. José Mourinho's organised side controlled the final against Didier Deschamps' Monaco. The rating is modest because Porto were Portuguese champions with a strong squad, but the path they cut through the competition's financial elite was remarkable.

10/10Greece 1–0 Portugal, 2004
Score
1–0 (Charisteas 57')
Venue
Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
Date
4 July 2004
Stage
European Championship final

Why it was improbable. Greece had never won a match at a major tournament before Euro 2004. Portugal were hosts with Figo, Rui Costa and a young Cristiano Ronaldo.

How it happened. Otto Rehhagel's side beat Portugal in the opening game, then France in the quarter-final and the Czech Republic with a silver goal in the semi. Angelos Charisteas headed the only goal of the final from a corner. Greece kept clean sheets in every knockout game and apologised to nobody.

Favourite against underdog

Credentials of each finalist before kick-off
FinalThe favouriteThe underdogRating
Celtic 2–1 Inter, 1967Inter: two-time European championsCeltic: no British winner before6/10
Czechoslovakia v West Germany, 1976West Germany: world and European championsCzechoslovakia: first major final7/10
Steaua v Barcelona, 1986Barcelona: near-home crowd in SevilleSteaua: no Eastern Bloc winner before7/10
Denmark 2–0 Germany, 1992Germany: world championsDenmark: late replacement entrant9/10
Porto 3–0 Monaco, 2004The competition's financial elitePorto: outside the favourites6/10
Greece 1–0 Portugal, 2004Portugal: hosts, star-laden squadGreece: no previous tournament win10/10

What the file tells us

Finals reward organisation. Greece, Porto and Steaua all arrived with a defensive structure that made the favourite's attacking talent less decisive, and all three conceded nothing in the final. Celtic and Czechoslovakia show the opposite route: an outsider who attacks a cautious favourite can make the favourite's caution its undoing.

The common denominator is preparation. Not one of these winners was a fluke in the sense of being outplayed and lucky. They were underestimated, and they knew precisely what to do about it.