What gets a case file
Every upset in the index must pass one test: before kick-off, a reasonable observer would have expected the other side to win. We look for evidence from the time, not from the highlight reel. That means league positions, divisional tiers, world rankings where they exist, prior head-to-head results, squad strength and, for modern matches, published betting odds.
The underdog rating
Each file carries a round brass badge with a score from 1 to 10. It is an editorial judgement, built from four weighted factors:
- Pre-match gap (50%). Tiers, rankings, budgets, odds.
- Stakes (20%). A final outranks a group game; a title outranks a single win.
- Manner (15%). Ten men, extra time or a two-goal deficit add weight.
- Legacy (15%). Did the result change a club, a competition or the game's assumptions?
Sources
We cross-check official competition records from FIFA, UEFA and national associations against contemporary match reports. Standard reference works on our shelf include Brian Glanville's The Story of the World Cup, David Goldblatt's The Ball Is Round and Chris Anderson and David Sally's The Numbers Game. Where accounts disagree, we use the official record and say so.
Independence
We accept no payment from clubs, governing bodies or bookmakers, and no case file is sponsored. Corrections are welcome and are made promptly; write to [email protected].